Department of Water Resource has issued prediction of 2020 seasonal rainfall as below.
July-August-September (JAS) 2020 Season Rainfall Prediction over The Gambia
Annual rainfall amount is predicted very likely to be normal to above normal in the country for the entire period of July, August and September, which was based on the evolution of the Sea Surface Temperatures over the North and South Tropical Atlantic Ocean and Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Most places in the country are however predicted to experience above normal annual rainfall with the highest amount above 1000mm expected in the western sector of the country (WCR, NBR and GBA). Amount in the range of 800 – 950mm are very likely over the rest of the country.
The predicted 2020 rainfall values would therefore be above normal over large areas of the country. The latest figures indicate a 45% chance of above normal rainfall, 40% chance of near-normal rainfall and 15% chance for below normal rainfall. Put in simpler terms, this means that the chance of having an above normal rainfall is thrice the chance of having a below normal rainfall.
Rainfall onset in 2020 is predicted to be normal to slightly early in most parts of the country with the earliest onset date predicted to begin in the Eastern sector (URR and CRR) of the country by June 12. Onset is likely to be delayed up till June 24 in the Western sector (LRR, NBR, WCR and GBA) of the country.
3. Rainfall Cessation in 2020 is predicted to be delayed than normal in the most part of the country by October 16.
2. A longer than normal length of season is predicted for most part of the country. It is expected to be in the range of 110-120 days.
3. Hazards Associated with 2020 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction
Early to near normal onset very likely over much of the country
Heavy precipitation potentially leading to floods
Dry spells during the season;
4. Advices
With the predicted “above normal rainy season” in most part of the country, some of the expected consequences in the agricultural production sector and other key socio-economic sectors as well as recommended coping strategies are stated below:
Agricultural Sector: The amount of rainfall expected over most parts of the country should be sufficient to favour agricultural production, if crop varieties resistant to rainfall surplus are sowed. Farmers should plant immediately the predicted dates of rainfall onset are achieved which fall between 12 June and 24 June. The Department of Agriculture should strengthen vigilance against weeds and pests (locusts and other insects). And that the farmers should prioritize high land areas for planting.
In view of the overall wet situation expected for the 2020 rainy season and the ongoing locust crisis in Eastern Africa and the Horn of Africa, it is very likely to observe an incursion of desert locust swarms due to the early onset of the rainy season in the Sahelian band. Combined with the situation related to the COVID19 pandemic, this risk of desert locust invasion could increase the risk of food insecurity for millions of people in the Sahel and West Africa.
To prevent the risks, it is recommended that:
States to strengthen surveillance for desert locust invasion in the risk areas of frontline countries and to maintain vigilance against other crop pests such as the armyworm;
Inter-Governmental Organizations (IGOs) in the region to mobilize Technical and Financial Partners (TFPs) and the international community for preventive locust risk management.
TFPs, to support the Sahel and West African States, the IGOs of the region in their efforts to fight against crop pests and other scourges that can negatively impact the food and nutritional security of populations.
Health Sector: With the above normal rainfall predicted and above average temperature predicted for most parts of the country, incidences of malaria are expected to increase as high temperatures, high relative humidity (above 60%) rainfall and thick vegetation cover provides conducive conditions for the survival of the vectors and development of the parasites.
To reduce the risk of water-related diseases (Cholera, malaria, diarrhea, etc.) in wet or flooded areas, it is strongly recommended to:
Raise awareness on climate-sensitive diseases, in collaboration with meteorological, hydrological and health services,
Vaccinate people and animals, encourage the use of mosquito nets, set up stocks of anti-malarial,
Provide stocks of medicines in hard-to-reach areas following the floods,
Monitor water quality and set up stocks of treatment products
Strengthen the capacities of national health systems and disaster risk reduction platforms
Disaster Management: The predicted above normal rainfall may lead to flooding, particularly over the NBR, URR, WR regions and Greater Banjul Area (GBA).
It should also be noted that such excessive rainfall may lead to physical damage to crops in the field, and to agricultural equipment and structures, as well as physical damages to infrastructure, roads, telecommunication networks etc.
Also, loss of lives and displacement of large populations due to disruption of agricultural activities as a result of extreme weather is very likely. Therefore, the Nation Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) and partners are advised to take advantage of these advisories and strengthen their preparedness.
In view of the expected above-average rainfall totals all over the Gambia, shorter to average dry spell durations, and above-average river flows, the risk of flooding is high. In order to mitigate these risks to people, animals, crops and goods, it is recommended to:
Closely monitor the alert thresholds in the various high-risk flood sites;
Strengthen the communication of seasonal forecasts and awareness raising among vulnerable communities, by involving state actors and the various disaster risk reduction platforms in the communication and crisis management chain,
Prevent the uncontrolled occupation of flood-prone areas, particularly in urban areas,
Strengthen the monitoring and response capacities of agencies in charge of flood monitoring, disaster risk reduction and humanitarian aid,
Ensure the regular cleaning of the drainage channels,
Conduct simulation exercises as part of the preparation of flood response plans
The forecast is highly recommended for use in the planning of interventions in several socio-economic sectors.
