By Kemo Kanyi
A Gambian political scientist has said the withdrawal of the opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) from coalition negotiations points to growing fragmentation within the country’s opposition ahead of the 2026 presidential election.
Biran Gai, a political science lecturer at the University of The Gambia, said recent developments surrounding coalition-building efforts were discouraging for opposition politics.
“The fact that the United Democratic Party has walked away from the coalition means we are heading towards opposition fragmentation, which appears inevitable at this stage because I do not see the parties reconciling their differences,” Gai said.
He added that reports of Gambia Democratic Congress (GDC) leader Mamma Kandeh joining the ruling National People’s Party (NPP) alliance could further weaken the opposition, describing the GDC as a key player in previous coalition efforts.
According to Gai, the loss of GDC’s support would strengthen the NPP alliance ahead of the December 2026 presidential election.
However, he said the political landscape could still change if opposition parties recognise that none of them is capable of defeating the NPP alliance independently.
He argued that the NPP alliance remains one of the country’s strongest political formations, citing its electoral record over the past decade as evidence of its political strength.
Gai said a united opposition would be required to mount a credible challenge against the incumbent, but noted that such unity appears increasingly unlikely following the UDP’s withdrawal from coalition talks.
He also expressed the view that smaller opposition parties, including UNITE and APP-Sobeyaa, would not on their own constitute a sufficient electoral challenge to the ruling alliance.
The political scientist concluded that based on current political developments, the ruling NPP appears well positioned for victory in the 2026 presidential election if opposition parties remain divided.
He noted that electoral history in The Gambia has generally shown that divisions within the opposition tend to favour incumbent governments.