By Haddy Touray
Ousainou Bobb, spokesperson for the Alliance for Patriotic Progress (APP-Sobeyaa), has cautioned against drawing premature conclusions from the recently published CEP-RASS opinion poll, which has sparked intense debate about the potential outcome of the 2026 presidential election.
In a statement made available to Panapress, Bobb acknowledged the value of opinion surveys in democratic societies, noting that when properly designed and responsibly interpreted, they can capture public sentiment and enrich political debate.
He said the CEP-RASS should be commended for conducting a nationwide survey at a time when public confidence in governance remains under pressure.
However, Bobb warned that the influence of such polls in young democracies requires careful handling. He stressed that the key concern is not whether the survey adhered to basic statistical standards, but whether its findings are being interpreted beyond what the data can support within The Gambia’s political context.
From a technical perspective, Bobb said, a sample of just over 1,200 respondents can offer a general snapshot of public opinion. But he noted that The Gambia is approaching an electorate of nearly one million voters, with significant differences across age, income, geography and access to state power.
He added that in such environments, standard margins of error may not capture deeper social dynamics that influence how people respond to political questions.
Bobb further noted that voting behaviour in The Gambia is often shaped by caution as much as conviction. In systems where the state remains a major economic actor, respondents may be reluctant to openly express opposition views, especially during face-to-face interviews. He said this tendency is widely recognised in political research across Africa and other emerging democracies.
“As a result, early polling may reflect what people feel safe saying rather than what they will ultimately do in the privacy of the ballot,” he said.
Bobb urged that apparent support for an incumbent should be assessed alongside other findings in the same survey. He said that when strong dissatisfaction with the economy, employment opportunities and governance performance exists alongside claimed electoral support, the picture is not one of settled consensus but of uncertainty and unresolved choices.
He warned that the greater risk lies in how such polls are framed publicly. While presented as a measure of current perceptions, early polling can easily be interpreted as a forecast. In fragile democracies, he said, this can discourage participation, weaken opposition mobilisation and create a false sense of inevitability about electoral outcomes.
“Polls do not merely reflect public opinion; they can influence it,” Bobb said.
He stressed that this does not render the CEP-RASS survey useless or invalid. Instead, he said, its value lies in highlighting where public frustration is strongest and where political actors must respond more credibly.
“Read carefully, the data suggests an electorate that is dissatisfied but cautious, engaged but unconvinced. That is not the profile of a closed race,” he added.
Bobb concluded that elections are not decided by early measurements alone, but are shaped by campaigns, credibility, organisation and voter turnout. He urged political actors to interpret early survey results with restraint as the country approaches the 2026 elections.